Delegate-ometer

So, the M-Obam-emtum rolls on. By my unscientific count, I find 12 states left to dole out the delegates on the Democratic side for a total of 1062 delegates (VT, RI, OH, TX, MS, PA, IN, NC, KY, OR, SD, MT). Unfortunately, that’s the only thing for sure right now, is how many delegates are left on calendar. No one seems to be able to figure out how many delegates anyone has with any level of consistency.

I looked at 7 sites that aren’t liberal blogs, but “news-ish” places, and all 6 have different totals, even for pledged delegates.

Yahoo puts the race at 1146 to 1004, Obama.

CNN says it stands at 1154-1011, Obama.

Real Clear Politics muddies the water by putting the totals at 1185-1024, Obama.

MSNBC gives us 4 differing totals with their 1168-1018, Obama.

CBS calls it at 1188-1028, Obama.

Fox New’s coverage is as disjointed as the party they represent. I don’t think they want you to know who’s really ahead in pledged delegates, but just in case they post the AP totals so they can bash the libural media again when they come back wrong…or something.

And finally, ABC News, from the land of Disney, is just as chicken as Fox, which makes ABC and FOX the only two major networks that seem to agree on the delegate totals.

All the totals listed are “Pre-Superdelegate” totals because they can decide to go with whomever they want to at any time they want to, and despite the whining of some folks that’s their right since they’re either currently or have in the past been actively working for the party, all 796 of them (sheesh).

So if we’ve got 1062 delegates left to get, and somewhere between a 142 and 161 point spread between the candidates there’s still plenty of things to fight about, at least until the 3/4 primaries. The March 4 primary accounts for 444 or the 1062 left or 42% of the remaining delegates.

If Obama performs as he has in the past few weeks, getting an average of 60% of the vote, that increases his lead by a net 88 delegates to somewhere around 230-249, depending on the voodoo that the locals use to calculate the totals.

If Clinton holds strong in Texas and Ohio, this thing will drag on until June 3rd, when South Dakota and Montana finally take their turn.

In either case, neither of them is gonna get the 2000+ needed to win without the benefit of some “Supers”or 80% of the vote for the remaining contests (unlikely).

Estimates show that about half of them are currently pledged to someone (234-161 Clinton). Obama needs to get at least half of the remaining 400 to keep the margin close enough to win.

All of this stuff is up in the air. Supers can change their minds just like anyone else, though Bill Clinton would probably spit on them if they moved from Hillary. The real task is to wait another 2 weeks to see what happens in OH and TX. If Obama holds strong, Clinton needs to get out of the way, because no number of supers can win it for her…unless they seat MI and FL…

Makes my brain hurt.

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