Big Shelby Leads Charge in a Declining Western Division

Tennessee is growing. According to US Census estimates Tennessee has added some 525,614 people since the census in 2000. In that time, the Eastern and Middle Divisions, as defined by TN Code 4-1-202 through 204 have seen their population increase by nearly 500,000. The Western Division, by contrast, has only added 30,000 people.

The Western Division suffers from some issues that have contributed to this poor population performance. First, the W. Division has fewer counties (21) that are far more rural than the other two divisions. The W. Division has only 1 of the 10 largest counties in Tennesseeā€¦Shelby. Only Shelby, Madison, Tipton and Gibson have populations over or near 50,000. By contrast, Middle TN has 8 Counties with populations greater than 50,000, and East TN has 15.

According to these estimates, Shelby County has only grown by just over 9000 people since 2000. Davidson, Rutherford, and Williamson in Middle TN have grown by over 150,000 total in the same time period. Knox, Hamilton, Blount and Sevier in the East have grown by around 100,000. Where have all the West Tennessee people gone?

10 counties in West TN have seen population declines since 2000 for a total of 6500 fewer people. Tipton and Fayette, the two counties surrounding Shelby have seen a growth of almost 16000 people. Many of these new residents are likely from Shelby Co., creating a growth neutral situation. DeSoto Co., MS has seen growth of some 50,000 since 2000, the vast majority of these people have moved from Shelby Co. Under these circumstances, the growth that Shelby County ā€œfeelsā€ in terms of infrastructure use is not realized in the tax base, or the population leading to a net negative growth as a percentage of the entire stateā€™s population of 1.8% division wide.

With redistricting coming up in 2010, the Western Division stands to lose as many as 3 Representative and 1 Senator, if these numbers hold true, to the quickly expanding Middle. This is bad news for as many as 4 elected officials as well as the people of the Western Division, but at this point, thereā€™s not much that can be done by 2010.

The closure of several manufacturing plants in NW TN, and the general absence of economic diversity in rural counties is partially to blame for this decline, but the majority of the cause is right here in Shelby Co. High crime, low graduation rates, rampant poverty, and a reliance on existing employers to ā€œgrow our wayā€ out of the problem have hampered Shelbyā€™s growth, sending more and more people to N. Mississippi, which has almost tripled in population since 1990.

Mayor Herentonā€™s famous declaration calling on people to ā€œleaveā€ rather than addressing the problems of the City canā€™t have helped the situation.

On the flip side, nearly all of the new employers to the state in the past several years have taken residence in the Eastern and Middle divisions. This helps explain their growth as much as our inability to maintain our percentage of the statewide population.

In the end, while this is an ugly scenario, this is the reality that weā€™re facing in two years, assuming that the numbers hold true. For Democrats, it gives us one more motivating factor for taking back the House in 2010, to keep Republicans from exploiting these statewide demographic shifts in redistricting. For the Western Division, it further illustrates the need for us to demand better from our elected representatives in state, county, and city government.

We have a lot to address, and it canā€™t all be done by 2010, but itā€™s important for the 21 counties here in the West not fall so far behind that we become an economically depressed area of Tennessee. We have a great deal to offer, but we also have to stop being our own worst enemies, and work together to raise the standard of living for all West Tennesseans. Itā€™s a tough row to hoe, but inaction is not an option.

Comments

6 responses to “Big Shelby Leads Charge in a Declining Western Division”

  1. Steve, I was with you up to the battle cry to elect Democrats. I don’t care if the person is green with yellow dots, if she or he can make progress solving the issues of crime, poor schools, and corruption I am supporting them, him, her.

  2. […] Vibinc breaks down some numbers on the west side of the state: 10 counties in West TN have seen population declines since 2000 for a total of 6500 fewer people. Tipton and Fayette, the two counties surrounding Shelby have seen a growth of almost 16000 people. Many of these new residents are likely from Shelby Co., creating a growth neutral situation. DeSoto Co., MS has seen growth of some 50,000 since 2000, the vast majority of these people have moved from Shelby Co. Under these circumstances, the growth that Shelby County ā€œfeelsā€ in terms of infrastructure use is not realized in the tax base, or the population leading to a net negative growth as a percentage of the entire stateā€™s population of 1.8% division wide. […]

  3. Dwayne

    I am no fan of Herenton’s but you can’t blame him for everything. The plantation culture hasn’t helped. Giving too much power to development interests who do not create jobs, produce no added value to the metro area, and hurt the overall planning process has hurt us deeply. We have been a stepchild to the almighty Nashville and the rest of TN for a long time and have been on the short end of the fiscal stick while Ark and especially Mississippi have learned how they can successfully feed off of us economically. There are lots of other problems but these are just a few reasons that Memphis is not growing.

  4. […] wrote about this possibility back in May of 2009, and it looks like my suspicions were right on […]

  5. […] There have been numerous reports about what’s going to happen to various locales. News outlets in Memphis have focused on the loss of two House seats and one Senate seat…something I wrote was probably going to happen back in 2009. […]

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