Iran is STILL not a real threat to the US

No amount of lying or inflating the truth will change the fact that Iran has no way to directly attack outside of the region

Two weeks into the War in Iran, several things are clear.

1. Iran posed no real military threat to the United States. – Iran’s missile corps can project power up to 1500mi. but no further. (Greece, India, Israel, and Northern Africa)
2. The US Administration still hasn’t decided why we began the war (in coordination with Israel).
3. The President has declared “we won”. He also said we can’t leave just yet because we’re not done winning?]
4. There is no plan to remove US troops from combat operations in the region. If anything, there is a chance for ground troops.
5. The US is materially less safe from international inspired terrorist attacks than it was two weeks ago.

So to recap: No real threat, no reason why, no way out, more lives lost, and terror threats at home.

This is what MAGA voted for.

Foolish adventurism

Enter the US, the most powerful military in the world.

Unlike other top 20 lists, the distance between the 16-20 and 1-5 is huge.

That doesn’t mean Iran couldn’t be a long-term problem for the US.

Ukraine is the 20th largest military in the world.

Four years ago, Russia (2) thought they could just stroll through Ukraine and bring it back to the fold as a satellite state. They’re still trying.

Being the biggest guy on the block doesn’t make it ok to attack people…even when you’re supporting an ally.

You have to know why that ally is planning the attack in the first place.

With Netanyahu, that question almost always gets tricky

Bibi’s Hail Mary

A recent poll shows only 38% of Israeli’s support Netanyahu over his rivals.

That may sound low, but in Israel, 38% is more than enough to establish a coalition government. This is how Netanyahu won the job of Prime Minister back in 2022.

His election came after several years of political instability from 2018-2022.

Netanyahu’s Likud party only claimed 26% of the seats in the Kinesset. Still, he reclaimed the office Prime Minister in late 2022 after striking deals with three ultra-right, and religious nationalist political parties.

These 3 parties hold exactly half of the seats in the majority. This gives them incredible power. For some, it was the first time in their history they had been part of leadership.

For all, it was the first time, together, they had held enough seats to bend a government to their will.

Netanyahu’s aim has always been power and self-preservation. Staying Prime Minister both kept him atop Israeli politics and out of jail.

Bibi’s presence in leadership has helped slow a corruption trial that has been hovering since 2019.

Last year, he sought a pre-emptive pardon for the charges of corruption.

With elections set for October of this year, the clock may be ticking on Netanyahu’s time in leadership…and with it, his ability to stay out of prison.

What does Israeli politics have to do with Iran?

A lot, actually.

Under the leadership of the US backed Shah, Iran and Israel had a strong relationship. Iran was the second Muslim majority state to recognize Israel, after Turkey.

After the 1979 Revolution in Iran, the new leadership of Iran called for its destruction.

That obviously didn’t go over well. No country will stand by and let another call for its destruction. But for a time, Iran and Israel still maintained diplomatic relations.

After the rise of Ayatollah Khomeini in 1979, Israel sold arms to Iran during the Iran-Iraq war. And for a time, that slowed down the rhetoric. By 1989, Iran was back, in full anti-Israel mode.

As a result, Israel has maintained a series of covert intelligence and military operations in and around Iran for decades.

Israel’s strong diplomatic relations with the United States, who Iran calls “the Great Satan” also played a role. As Iran’s rhetoric hardened, so did Israel’s stance toward the once ally.

Iran’s continued support of Hamas in Gaza and Hezbollah in Lebanon and Syria, put them in indirect conflict with Israel. These Iranian proxies, helped destabilize the Levant.

It is Iran’s support of Hamas, the election of an ultra-right wing government, and the October 7th attacks that ultimately made them a number one target.

Which is politically expedient for Netanyahu, who has used instability in the region, sometimes that he helped create, several times in service of maintaining his grip on power.

So did Israel drag the US into the war?

Several things, that appear to be in opposition, can be true at the same time.

• Did Netanyahu need a new enemy and conflict to maintain his power? – As detailed above, probably.
• Did the US leadership need a conflict right now? – Possibly. There are many reasons the Administration may want to start a pre-emptive war to distract from problems, (Economy, Epstein, general incompetence) despite saying they are the only ones who could keep us out of it. See also: Wag the Dog
• Did Israel force the US into this war? – No. This was a war of choice. Israel may have notified the US of their intention to attack, but the US didn’t have to join. The US has been moving assets into the region for months. You don’t move that much steel without some kind of reason. It may have been to pressure the Iranians into negotiations, or it may have been part of a longer-term plan to support Netanyahu if he found the opportunity to attack.
• Will this end soon? – No. Netanyahu needs this to last until October at least. Trump needs it to last until people forget how shitty a President he is, so it could last forever.
• Is it a good thing that Ayatollah Ali Khamenei is dead? No. There’s an old saying, “The devil you know is better than the devil you don’t.” The regime Khamenei led was brutal and inhumaine. There’s no indication the new one will be any better. His son is now in power. He’s more radical than his dad. We killed his dad and his wife. We’ve destroyed a ton of the country’s infrastructure. He has a vast network of sleeper cells across the globe. This is an unmitigated disaster that will hurt us internationally for a long time.
• Will Iranians overthrow the Islamic Republic? No. If anything, the Iranian people now hate America more than they hate the Islamic Republic.
• Why won’t Iranians fight the regime? Because when someone comes to your home and shits in your living room, you get mad at them. It doesn’t matter that grandpaw has been doing the same thing for years. An outsider is doing it.

In short, we fucked this up.

Is there any upside?

As of this writing, there is no upside in this conflict for the American people, or America’s standing on the world stage.

We’re burning $1b/day with no plan, no exit strategy, and no objectives.

The best we can hope for in the conflict itself, is a graceful and expedient exit.

Even the anger at the Trump Administration is no upside. It will not last until November, and will not likely impact any elections that could tilt the balance of power.

Costs are skyrocketing right before our eyes.

Resources will become more scarce, with Saudi Arabia only able to guarantee 70% of its normal output until the Strait of Hormuz is moving at full speed again.

So far, eight US servicemen have died along with thousands of innocent Iranians. This is a human tragedy.

We can hate the Iranian government all we want, but the heavy loss of civilian life for the most advanced military in the world, is an abject failure.

As with most wars, no one really wins, except defense contractors and their investors.

So what now?

Your guess is as good as mine.

I have no insight into what happens next…just as I had no insight that we would engage in this kind of reckless military adventurism right now.

I hope it ends soon, and with as little loss of life as possible.

But I suspect it will not.