Dumb and Dumber – Iran Edition

Trump’s full flop on Iran will lead to an inflation pop, and more misery for the American people.

Iran War – Quick overview

At the beginning of the year, the administration started signaling that they were open to attacking Iran. This statement came in the wake of a brutal crackdown on protesters.

At the time, it seemed like bluster.

The Administration had just ordered the attack and capture of Venezuelan President Maduro. Another far flung conflict seemed far fetched.

It wasn’t.

What no one predicted was the first pharmaceutically unaided boner the President got in years…all from exercising Colonial type power.

Of course, if capturing Maduro was boner inducing, going after an Ayatollah had to be even better, right?

And so, on Feb. 28th, the US and Israel launched strikes on Iran, killing its Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei.

The bombardment of Iran has continued, and likely will for some time.

The Lying Liar Lied

But I thought Trump said he would end the forever wars?

Funny story, when someone is known for lying, they will lie to get what they want.

So after accusing President Obama of planning to attack Iran 6 times, look who did it himself.

Classic Trump.

Back during the 2016 election and the Trump I administration, Trump regularly criticized “Regime Change” policy as dumb.

Regime Change was honestly, the only thing I agreed with him on.

Regime change is, and always has been dumb. It rarely works. In our history the only successful regime change we’ve led happened in Japan and Germany post WWII.

Both countries had some recent history of democratic institutions.

Iran doesn’t have that.

And so, this effort at regime change will likely do nothing but destabilize the region for reasons no one can seem to agree on.

Why Now? No one can figure that out

The Administration has given several conflicting accounts of why the action in Iran began.

I could go through all of them, or you can just click the link and read them all for yourself.

Or read this BBC report, as it is the most comprehensive I’ve found thus far.

Or, if you’re a glutton for punishment, you can read this about it all being Obama and Biden’s fault, because scapegoats.

Unlike others, I don’t see these as “distractions”.

Rather, I see the Administration’s “scatter shot” approach as a tactic to keep anyone from being to digest the same information in the limited time and attention span that most people have.

The scatter shot means everyone gets a different pellet from the same shot.

From one day to the next, narratives shift like sand under the weight of this administrations constant lying.

I’m pretty sure Trump is aware he’s using the “scatter shot” tactic. But aside from understanding that baffling people with bullshit has been his brand for 40+ years, I don’t think there’s much strategy here.

Its just something that works, that he’s good at. There’s no 3D chess.

Ultimately, this recent military adventurism is an effort to “look strong” in the face of falling poll numbers, growing economic discontent, and an Epstein scandal that just won’t go away.

Inflation is back, baby

This military adventurism comes at a cost.

Already, prices at the pump are up $.35/gal here in Memphis.

Here’s what I saw this morning at the station on Poplar and Cleveland. They changed the price at the pump, but not the sign on Poplar.

Imagine my surprise.

For his part, the President says this is a small price to pay.

I guess its easy to feel that way when your travel is paid for by American taxpayers.

Everything is about to get more expensive

Just like oil prices helped cause the spike in inflation back in 2022, it will likely cause it again today.

Investopedia has a good explainer why, so if you want more details, here ya go.

Here’s the Cliff’s Notes version.

Almost everything has plastic in it. Plastic is made with petrochemicals.

Everything has to be shipped, and all shipping uses diesel, which is up $.45/gal since mid-January.

When manufacturers have more costs, they pass that cost on to consumers…you know, like they did with the tariffs.

There’s one item whose price is pretty sticky that I like to use to gauge inflation. If this item changes, people complain a lot. And since August the price has gone up dramatically.

That’s beer.

Back in August, when inflation was down and the President was heralding his grand accomplishment, a 12 pack of Miller Lite cost $14.

Yesterday, that same 12 pack was $16. That’s marked down from $18.

I can only imagine what fresh hell we’ll be subjected to now that oil is up.

Why is oil going up? The Strait of Hormuz.

The single most reliable predictor of oil prices

That’s the Strait of Hormuz.

Every single fucking time we do something that pisses off the Iranians, they shut down the Strait.

Why? because its a huge bottleneck in global oil distribution from Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, Iran, and Iraq.

And it’s not like this is a surprise. Iran has regularly shut down, or slowed traffic through the Strait to impose economic/political pressure on countries that it sees as working outside their interests.

But now, even countries friendly to Iran can’t get oil.

A report over the weekend from the Center for Strategic and International Studies says even China can’t get their oil.

A couple of days ago, the US allowed India to buy Russian oil, despite sanctions stemming from Russia’s invasion, occupation, and continued bombardment of parts of Ukraine.

Which is really confusing, but also, I guess its supposed to be.

More to it

There’s even more to this story that I can’t get into in this post.

Like how the administration first said Israel’s plan to strike Iran led to the US joining the strikes to pre-emptively protect American servicemen in the region…a claim he walked back the next day, and that Trump almost immediately contradicted.

Or how some combat unit commanders have characterized this action as an effort to bring Jesus back to Earth Revelation style.

No friends, I have no bandwidth to deal with all that right now.

But there will be more.

The scatter shot tactic will continue.

We’ll probably invade Cuba, who we have been blockading for months.

We are using our military to conduct counter-cartel operations throughout Latin America.

Of course, the demand that fuels the cartels is not being addressed at all despite over 50 years of “War on Drugs” failures.

I could go on and on, but I’ve committed myself to not doing that even though I am totally doing that right now.

So until I have the will to do this again, we’ll have to deal with the more expensive gas, beer, and God knows what else.

Because flooding the zone with shit is literally all he knows how to do.