Ok folks, I know it’s been a long time since I updated. Believe me, if it were up to me I’d be blogging like a sonuvabitch. Unfortunately, I’ve been on the road almost non-stop since the 11th, and it ain’t looking any better until the 7th of March. In the mean time, have a drink and get ready. I’m planning my escape from blogger, I’ve found my new calling in life (more details later) and I’ve got a business (my current one) to get launched.
The blogging will resume shortly, sorry for the interruption.
ABC reported this morning that a new “Pro-Hillary” 527 called the “American Leadership Project” was being launched by Clinton loyalists to swift boat the Obama campaign.
This is their first ad.
Here is the IRS 527 form.
Here is a profile of Mr. Salazar.
Folks, we don’t need this. I understand that some are upset with Hillary’s performance. Blame the candidate and the organization that she built for that failure, don’t flog everyone in sight because you’re mad.
I suggest that Mr. Salazar hold off until we have a nominee so we can get to the business of winning the White House for a unified Democratic Party.
MSNBC is reporting that former President Bill Clinton has put out the call…
If she wins in Texas and Ohio, she’ll be the nominee. If she doesn’t, I don’t think she can be. It’s all on you.
I’ll bet money the people of Texas and Ohio will be blamed long before Mark Penn or any of the other Camp Clinton elitists.
Here’s to hoping we (the Democratic Party) can start running for the general in early March.
As a side note, I set up a fundraising thingy for the DNC. As I noted several posts ago,the DNC is down to about $750,000 after debts (according to the End of year disclusure filed 1/31/08).
Today, at long last, I made good on my words and made a contribution (though I made it before I set up the thingy). Also, I’m doing the Democracy Bond thing that I thought I had done years ago, but probably got screwed up when I changed banks and email addresses.
If you have an extra 10 spot or something, send some love to your national party. You don’t have to use the thingy on the right (though that would be cool), but give ’em a little extra somethin’ somethin’ to help win the White House in November.
So, the M-Obam-emtum rolls on. By my unscientific count, I find 12 states left to dole out the delegates on the Democratic side for a total of 1062 delegates (VT, RI, OH, TX, MS, PA, IN, NC, KY, OR, SD, MT). Unfortunately, that’s the only thing for sure right now, is how many delegates are left on calendar. No one seems to be able to figure out how many delegates anyone has with any level of consistency.
I looked at 7 sites that aren’t liberal blogs, but “news-ish” places, and all 6 have different totals, even for pledged delegates.
Yahoo puts the race at 1146 to 1004, Obama.
CNN says it stands at 1154-1011, Obama.
Real Clear Politics muddies the water by putting the totals at 1185-1024, Obama.
MSNBC gives us 4 differing totals with their 1168-1018, Obama.
CBS calls it at 1188-1028, Obama.
Fox New’s coverage is as disjointed as the party they represent. I don’t think they want you to know who’s really ahead in pledged delegates, but just in case they post the AP totals so they can bash the libural media again when they come back wrong…or something.
And finally, ABC News, from the land of Disney, is just as chicken as Fox, which makes ABC and FOX the only two major networks that seem to agree on the delegate totals.
All the totals listed are “Pre-Superdelegate” totals because they can decide to go with whomever they want to at any time they want to, and despite the whining of some folks that’s their right since they’re either currently or have in the past been actively working for the party, all 796 of them (sheesh).
So if we’ve got 1062 delegates left to get, and somewhere between a 142 and 161 point spread between the candidates there’s still plenty of things to fight about, at least until the 3/4 primaries. The March 4 primary accounts for 444 or the 1062 left or 42% of the remaining delegates.
If Obama performs as he has in the past few weeks, getting an average of 60% of the vote, that increases his lead by a net 88 delegates to somewhere around 230-249, depending on the voodoo that the locals use to calculate the totals.
If Clinton holds strong in Texas and Ohio, this thing will drag on until June 3rd, when South Dakota and Montana finally take their turn.
In either case, neither of them is gonna get the 2000+ needed to win without the benefit of some “Supers”or 80% of the vote for the remaining contests (unlikely).
Estimates show that about half of them are currently pledged to someone (234-161 Clinton). Obama needs to get at least half of the remaining 400 to keep the margin close enough to win.
All of this stuff is up in the air. Supers can change their minds just like anyone else, though Bill Clinton would probably spit on them if they moved from Hillary. The real task is to wait another 2 weeks to see what happens in OH and TX. If Obama holds strong, Clinton needs to get out of the way, because no number of supers can win it for her…unless they seat MI and FL…
Makes my brain hurt.
In our latest installment of “The Hillary Clinton Campaign’s Continuing Efforts to Make Their Candidate Look More Like the Problem than the Solution”, TPM reports that long time Clinton supporter Harold Ickes
…acknowledged that it would be possible for Clinton to lose pledged delegates but control a majority of the credentials committee, which ultimately decides if and how Florida’s and Michigan’s disputed delegations would be dealt with.
Stuff like this is what turns people off to politics, and makes them feel powerless. Why in the world would the Camp Clinton even want to speak to this in any way? Giving away strategy is not a winning strategy. Neither is putting forth a red herring strategy that is sure to piss off a lot of people.
Further, statements like this, made by surrogates, only reinforce many of the “Right Wing talking points” about “the Clintons”.
I can’t blame the Clinton Campaign for wanting to fight for delegates from Michigan and Florida. I’m sure that if the tables were turned, the Obama camp would be fighting just as hard for those delegates in this close race. Ultimately, I blame the state parties in MI and FL for breaking party rules and creating an artificial mess in a year that, by all accounts, should be ours to lose.
On the other hand, I CAN blame the Clinton camp for going about their fighting for delegates in a way that is both elitist and that highlights the worst characteristics of the party system in general.
Back in January, I wrote about federalizing the primary system and now, more than ever, that seems like the solution, even if the specifics of my idea are a pipe dream or just plain unworkable.
In any case, the whole conversation about how the Clinton Camp is going to game the system to make sure that x or y happens is dead to me. The more I hear about it from Clinton surrogates the more I am convinced that the Clinton camp has no faith in their ability to win this thing outright without some kind of shenanigans.
That kind of mentality doesn’t bode well for the rest of the nomination process or the general. Hillary, get it together or get out of the way, and stop letting your henchmen out of their cages to say stupid stuff in public. This includes family members.